Articles

Lottery Myths and Maths

Rule changes, old draws and number theories, checked against the real record.

Seven pieces, each built on something we worked out ourselves rather than repeated: the ban on foreign-matched lotteries and the review that did not recommend it, what the terms actually say about winning a charity prize home, a format change coming to Irish Lotto, a Powerball draw that went strange in 2005, the arithmetic behind a UK rule change nobody explained properly, what 360 Australian draws say about hot and cold numbers, and the search for a number that has never been drawn.

Australian games

The most and least drawn numbers in four Aussie lotteries

We went looking for a number that had never come up. Across 90 draws of all four games there is not one, and the counts that do differ are level again by next Tuesday.

 Lottery law

Australia has banned foreign-matched lotteries

Schedule 4 commences on 1 January 2027 with no transition. The government's own review could not find a different harm profile and recommended more research, not a ban.

 Prize homes

What happens if you win a charity prize home

The prize is not declared as income and two operators pay the transfer costs. The cash payout at seventy per cent and the forced holding period are in nobody's terms.

 Irish Lotto

Ireland is retiring two lottery numbers

On 5 September, 46 and 47 stop existing and the odds improve to 1 in 8,145,060. The last time Ireland changed the maths, a syndicate had just tried to buy the whole game.

 USA Power Lotto

The night 110 people won second prize, because of a biscuit

One fortune cookie factory printed the same six numbers. Five came out. The lottery assumed fraud and paid 19 million dollars it had not budgeted for.

 Australian games

Hot and cold numbers do not predict the draw

We split 360 Australian draws in half and counted what the hot and cold numbers of the first half did in the second. Both landed on expectation. One real effect survives, and it is not about winning.

 UK Lotto

UK Lotto now draws twice a night. Here is what it costs you.

Your chance of winning something roughly doubled. Three prizes were cut to pay for it, and two rounds still have not undone what 2015 did.

No technique beats a random draw. We still think that's worth talking about.